2024 Monsoon Forecast: Here's why we expect a hotter and drier season

The 2024 North American Monsoon, which generally runs mid-June through September, is here, but how is the rest of the season shaping up in terms of above or below-average rainfall?

Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a 4 in 10 chance of drier-than-normal conditions for much of Arizona and surrounding Desert Southwest areas. This is a significant concern, as many regions rely on the monsoon season for a substantial portion of their annual rainfall. In contrast, temperatures are expected to be higher than average, with a 6 in 10 chance of above-normal heat, compounding the challenges of a drier season.

Several factors contribute to this outlook. Climate change continues to drive hotter and drier summers across the Desert Southwest. Additionally, high-pressure systems, which typically bring dry conditions, may be delayed due to higher-than-usual soil moisture levels. The expected La Niña event, with a 70% probability, could also result in less Pacific Tropical Cyclone activity, reducing the influx of moisture from these systems.

As we anticipate this hotter and drier monsoon season, it is crucial for communities, farmers, and policymakers to prepare for these challenging conditions. Water conservation, heat mitigation, and resource management strategies will be vital to cope with the impacts on agriculture, water supplies, and public health.